According to Micron, the memory shortage will last until 2028 at least. So do not plan for falling prices. Bring forward only the replacements that are due in the next twelve months anyway, keep working devices running longer, and cover the price risk by contract, for example with a device as a service provider like Everphone.
Memory is scarce because manufacturers are shifting their fabs to chips for AI data centres. That affects every laptop ordered this year and next. This article tells you which devices in your fleet take priority and which you can keep using without worry.
What Micron says about the memory shortage until 2028
Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said on the fiscal 2026 earnings call, in essence, that demand will exceed supply in 2027 and 2028. He expects the shortage to be tighter than in 2026 in both years.
Relief comes late. Micron executive Sumit Sadana expects significantly more supply only from 2028. The ID1 fab in Idaho is due to deliver its first wafers in mid-2027, ID2 at the end of 2028. On top of that, memory for AI accelerators (HBM) needs far more wafers per unit of usable capacity than standard memory. New fabs therefore do not automatically mean more RAM for office laptops.
Background: a wafer is a thin slice of semiconductor material (usually high-purity silicon) that serves as the base for making microchips and electronic components.
The investment bank UBS expects price pressure until the second quarter of 2028. For the third quarter of 2026, it had forecast DRAM contract prices up 32 percent on the previous quarter.
There are other voices. Some analysts expect relief sooner, others expect high prices until 2030. For your planning, that means the timing is uncertain, the direction is not.
What rising RAM prices mean for business laptops and smartphones
Laptops and PCs are hit first and hardest. According to Gartner, higher DRAM and SSD prices have pushed the average PC price up by 17 percent this year.
A 32 GB DDR5 module cost €400 to €500 in August 2026, according to the same report. In September 2025 it was around €100.
For smartphones, t3n assesses the effect as weaker so far, but manufacturers expect higher prices here too. Memory makes up a smaller share of a smartphone's total cost than of a laptop with a lot of RAM.
For planning, something else matters more than today's market price: you do not buy once, you buy every year. A fleet of 300 laptops with a four-year service life means 75 replacement devices a year, and each of them will be bought at 2027 or 2028 prices if you change nothing.
Which devices to replace now and which can run longer
Replace what can no longer be run sensibly. Postpone what still works well. The table sorts typical cases.
| Device condition | Recommendation | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| No more manufacturer update support (operating system or security patches) | Replace now | The security risk grows every month, and prices are unlikely to fall |
| Defective, repair costs more than half the price of a new device | Replace | Repair only pays off if it extends the device's life by several years |
| Laptop with too little memory for current software | Replace, but do not configure too tightly | A laptop ordered too small is a replacement case again in two years |
| Runs stably, battery still lasts a working day | Keep using | Every device you keep a year longer saves an order at peak prices |
| Runs stably, weak battery | Replace the battery, keep using | A battery swap costs a fraction of a new device |
| Smartphone with update guarantee until 2028 at least | Keep using | The manufacturer keeps delivering security updates |
Two rules help with sorting.
First: devices whose replacement is due in the next twelve months anyway are the ones you bring forward, if you know a price and the budget allows it.
Second: everything that runs beyond that gets a review date, but no stockpile order.
You can find more on the life of business smartphones in our article on smartphone lifespan.
Worked example: 200 laptops and the price increase
Take a company with 200 laptops and a new price of €1,200 per device.
With a 17 percent price increase, as Gartner reports for PCs overall, the whole fleet costs €40,800 more (€280,800 instead of €240,000). Spread over four years, that is a good €10,000 a year that was not in the budget.
If only half the fleet has to be replaced in the next twelve months, you bear €20,400 of that. If you extend the use of the other 100 devices by a year, you postpone that bill and buy in 2028, hoping for better prices. That is a bet. It only works out if the devices run stably enough for that.
How buying and renting compare for laptops over their whole service life is covered in rent or buy laptops: a TCO comparison.
How to take the price risk out of your budget
You have three levers. They do not exclude each other.
The first is the service life. If you extend the service life from four to five years, you need a fifth fewer replacement devices over that period. This may only work with battery replacement and a clear condition check.
The second is the timing. When a replacement is due, order it now and not in the hope of relief. According to Micron, that comes in 2028 at the earliest. The same applies to availability: sold-out devices stay sold out, whatever you do.
The third is the contract. With rental, you pay a monthly rate instead of a one-off purchase price. The rental fixes the cost per device and month for the contract term. That turns a fluctuating purchase price into a plannable IT budget.
In addition, with device as a service the provider takes over device management: MDM, rollout, replacement and asset management are included. That saves the work that would otherwise land on your IT department during a larger procurement wave.
If you own devices and do not want to advance the purchase price again, you can also sell them and rent them back. How that works is explained in the article on buy-and-rent-back.
When bringing purchases forward pays off and when waiting is better
Bringing purchases forward pays off if more than a quarter of the fleet has to be replaced in the next twelve months anyway, if the devices no longer get security updates, or if your 2027 budget is already fixed. Then an early price helps far more than the hope of a price cut that never comes.
Waiting pays off if your devices are younger than three years, run stably and are not due for replacement until 2028. Do not buy a stockpile then. The price you pay today may be higher than in two years, and devices sitting in storage age even without use.
The middle path is not recommended: upgrading the whole fleet only out of fear of rising prices. That ties up budget for devices that would have run for three more years. Your next step is therefore a list: all devices with age, update status and battery condition. From it come replacements, review dates and the amount you plan for 2027.
Frequently asked questions
How long will the memory shortage last?
According to Micron, demand will exceed supply in 2027 and 2028. The company expects significantly more supply only from 2028, with larger contributions from new fabs in the years after. Some analysts expect earlier relief, others expect high prices until 2030.
Will smartphones also get more expensive because of the memory shortage?
Yes, but so far less than laptops and PCs. Manufacturers expect rising prices because smartphones also need RAM and flash storage. How large the increase is depends on the model and its memory configuration.
Should I buy all business laptops now as a stockpile?
No. Buy what is due in the next twelve months anyway. A stockpile ties up budget for devices you do not need yet, and the forecasts are uncertain. A better step is a device inventory with age, update status and battery condition. Better still is switching to device as a service, which gives you transparent and stable costs.
Does renting help against rising hardware prices?
Partly. Renting does not make devices cheaper, but it replaces a fluctuating purchase price with a fixed monthly rate. With device as a service, management, replacement and asset management come on top. Whether it pays off for you shows in a comparison over the whole service life.